Uncertainties Run Amok

So what has happened since our last musing. The United States economy continues to be a rollercoaster ride few citizens on Wall Street or Main Street are currently enjoying. In one day, the economy lost more than $1 trillion in value by plunging 777 points throughout the course of business. This sent ripples throughout the global economy causing anxiety and general unease among most major western economies. The markets then "rebounded" gaining over 200 points all the while eeringly teetering on the brink of collapse. I will continue to say that such drastic changes in market conditions are signs of great uncertainty and anxiety and point to the fact that the largest of our problems await. I will say again that no-one should feel comfortable when market actions are directly affected by the actions, or inactions, of the United States Congress.

Meanwhile, the Senate passed a larger version of the financial "bailout" or "rescue" or whatever its being called in the current debate. The bill passed by the Upper Chamber has a few more "sweeteners" designed to provide political cover for Members to vote yes. This seems fine, and normally works in attracting new votes in the legislative arena, except this issue is now so high-profile and the election is so close (5 weeks) that in this case poison by any other name remains poison. Once Members vote yes, or switch their votes to yes from no, that becomes an instant talking point for the opposition candidate for the next five weeks. I can see it now, and so can the Members, "Congressman X voted to bailout greedy investment bankers while doing nothing to protect your family and our community from the horrors of foreclosure, the strain provided by rising commodity prices and the pressures of rising energy prices". If only it were that simplistic, the only problem is, in elections it is.

Our Presidential candidate's continue to tell us that passage of this bill is of critical import, but neither of them have really taken any actions to show this truism other than showing up for a vote they are supposed to show up for anyway. I imagine that if one of these candidates did speak honestly with the American people and made this a hallmark issue of their campaign, an "action item" if you will, than that candidate would see a significant rise in their polling numbers across the board. Is it possible that instead of using campaign dollars in varying state's of strategic value that a candidate could approach the national television networks and ask to pay for a 15 minute chunk of time addressing the American people? It sets a dangerous precedent for future cycles, but it almost assures a victory in 2008. But a move such as that would require political leadership and anyone who knows anything in the nation's capitol can tell you that is a tough thing to come by in today's day and age.

So here's to the lower house of Congress. Our future as a nation rests squarely in your hands, at least our prosperity for the next 5 to 10 years. A "no" vote almost ensures our continued demise, while a "yes" vote could save us from the worst economic meltdown our nation has seen in generations. This is one of those votes where elected officials have to make a tough decision. That decision is a value judgement, which is more important, the future of our nation or the future of their job? I would argue that both are intertwined and a true public servant would be able to convey that compelling message with candor and vigor to their constituents.

Congress's Chance to Be Remarkable

The United States Congress has found itself in a relatively precarious position, the world outside of Washington, DC cares about what its doing and its actions (or inactions) will immediately effect the United States, in fact they already have.

Yesterday, U.S. financial markets dropped precipitously with the Dow sinking 372 points, the nation saw the end of the two-decade old investment banking era in the U.S and Japanese investors agreed to buy up to a $9 billion dollar stake in Morgan Stanley.

As a result of these events, the surprisingly resilient dollar reached a breaking point and nosedived in value causing oil to surge to $120.92 a barrel, the largest such jump in recent history. This chain of events has solidified the fact that the U.S. is facing the hard realities of a recession.

At the root of our economic problems lie two major concerns. Credit is nearly non-existent due to the financial market meltdown thus reducing investment opportunities and the dollar's purchasing power has declined greatly, making available capital less potent.

The fact that Congress needs to approve this $700 billion bailout now appears to be a foregone conclusion. Un-wise investments that began as private risks are now finding themselves as unwieldy public debt loaded on the back of the American taxpayer.

Congress can begin by preemptively absorbing the $700 billion estimated in bad debt that is "toxic" to our nation's markets. The Congress is correct in assuring this needs to be done with strong oversight to ensure the debt being absorbed is the correct debt to be absorbing. Further, the plan needs continued oversight to ensure this newly acquired government debt is worked to provide the highest possible value in the long-term, providing much-needed cover to the American taxpayer.

One thing we must also remember is that the passage of this rescue plan is not the final chapter in this saga, rather it is merely the beginning. The devaluation of the dollar and its correlation to surging oil prices makes it clear we need to reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

We use approximately 20.68 billion barrels of oil a day of which approximately 12 billion barrels are imported from foreign sources. Knowing this information, and the effects continued dependence will have on our economy, it is irresponsible to not advocate for responsible diversification of our energy supply combined with incentives for businesses and individuals to reduce their daily consumption.

On the supply side, we should expand our use of current natural gas supplies as new technologies have made previous unreachable reserves accessible. The Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania, the Barnett shale in Texas and the New Albany shale in the Illinois Basin in southwest Indiana serve as a few examples of what has become accessible in recent years. Natural gas. and more accurately Liquefied Natural Gas, is not the answer but in the short -term, as T. Boone Pickens is quick to point out, it could be the new diesel. We should also rework the renewable fuels standard to continue to supply ethanol in reliable amounts , but at levels that do not provide instability to domestic food markets.

We also need to increase the use of additional abundant renewable resources. The U.S. has a plethora of wind resources in major areas such as the Great Plains from northwestern Texas and eastern New Mexico northward to Montana, North Dakota, and western Minnesota. Congress should authorize the development of sustainable class 5 wind resources in North Dakota, Montana, Minnesota, Nebraska and other areas in the great-plains and begin offering incentives for the creation of these fields immediately. It should also include increased incentives for solar technologies keeping this energy source available and affordable for both industrial and residential consumers. These steps would not only serve to create new energy supplies, but would also create new jobs and new sources of revenue for an ailing economy.

At the same time, we need to continue our current efforts toward increased energy efficiencies. However, we need to turn our focus to increased efficiencies on an industrial level as two-thirds of our energy consumption is consumed by power producers and providers and other industrial users. When Congress returns from the 2008 elections, fresh with a mandate of change of some sort, they should pass incentives for power producers and providers and major industrial sources to decrease their energy uses significantly over the next ten to fifteen years through tax rebates and other incentives. These short term measures could be a great place to start in what seems to be a vexing transformational landscape.

Thoughts for McCain, Obama and the Congress

In these tumultuous times when a "conservative" White House continues to bail out hundreds of millions of dollars to save a once sound U.S. economy lets take a moment to pause and reflect on recent occurrences.

The U.S. housing market, a key part of the Bush Administration's "Ownership Society" tumbled last year due to predatory lending practices that put American consumers at risk. This occurred because in free markets we tend to let individuals be guided by their own intelligence or lack thereof. Lenders delved out a massive amount of interest-only mortgages which switched-over from introductory rates of around 1% to long-term rates that are much higher. Citizens seeking the American dream did not plan for this switch resulting in massive foreclosures in sub-prime mortgages with U.S. home foreclosures in May jumping 90% from a year earlier as a small example.

This lending instability rattled our leading financial institutions and created great instability in the financial market (an underpinning of our new economy) resulting in the fall of Bear Stearns, a firm which survived the stock market crash of 1929 without laying off any employees. Then came the crash of Merril Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and now AIG, phew (sweating, shortness of breath). Meanwhile, as a result of the subprime crises, the dollar has hit historic lows and has been significantly devalued. If the birth of credit was in the 1920's its re-birth will be seen in 2009 and 2010 as a jittery government will likely pass reactive policies that will far outreach the regulatory measures that would have kept this all in-check in the first place.

So what has our government done to safeguard the American people and ensure the stability of our sound economy. Well, hmm, umm the Congress (Democratically controlled) passed the Economic Stimulus Package of 2008. This package qualified low and middle income tax payers for a $600 tax rebate check. The law also offered businesses a one-time depreciation tax deduction equal to 50% of the cost of specified kinds of new investment during 2008. Finally, it increased the limits imposed on mortgages eligible for purchase by government sponsored enterprises (read bailout). All these actions in my view serve the purpose of applying a band-aid to a gaping flesh wound.

The Executive Branch led by a "conservative President" has also shelled out billions of dollars to keep the economy on "solid" footing. In fact, in the past month and a half the government has provided nearly $314 billion, yes billion, to help bail out Bear Stearns ($29 billion), Fannie and Freddie ($200 billion) and AIG ($85 billion). Oh and lets not forget we are already running a $500 billion deficit for fiscal year 2008 alone. The saying comes to mind that an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

In these troubling times we need a strong leader, Republican or Democrat, a leader who can provide some certainty to the American people during these times of instability. An individual who can provide a little comfort, and assure us that bright minds are developing a plan that will lead to a brighter future. Unfortunately we have George W. Bush. He decided that the best way to ease these jitters on Wall Street and Main Street would be a 2 minute press conference, yes a 2 minute press conference. The content of this conference was telling us the government has done the aforementioned items. No future vision, no future plan, no assurance, nothing. We were lucky to get "The American people are concerned about the situation in our financial markets and our economy, and I share their concerns".

So where do we go from here? Well, we could invest in infrastructure which would have two beneficial results. One immediate result would be the creation of tens of thousand of jobs in communities across the nation (think CCC in the 30's and the highway system in the 50's for two such examples). This would also improve our decaying infrastructure which would provide long-term economic benefits as goods movement would increase in speed, congestion would lessen and the cost of transporting goods would decrease significantly, thus resulting in great savings to the consumer. For as bad as the current situation is, it will be much worse if we don't have a reliable transportation and infrastructure network that can support the transportation of goods from port to port, by road, rail and air.

We should also keep in mind that this nation has always faced difficult times by employing its strongest assets, those are our intellect and can-do spirit. The world has begun to realize it is growing to large for its current infrastructure. That reliance on fossil fuels alone will no longer be adequate in the next 35-50 years. We should put our entrepreneurial spirit to work in developing and leading the charge on the development and distribution of renewable fuels and increased efficiency technologies. Both actions would create jobs and reduce the costs of energy production and distribution, all the while reducing the costs of business. Oh and sorry environmentalists, but if we want to be serious and responsible about this we will likely have to drill for increased resources in the interim. Believe it or not, this can be accomplished in a responsible and limited manner, supplying just enough petroleum and/or LNG to get us to the next generation of energy supply. I say we start with ANWR, if everyone in Alaska wants it, it cant be all that bad.

Keep these thoughts in mind as we elect the next President. One should think who will really tackle all the above in a comprehensive way. Regardless of the promises being offered on the campaign trail, the 44th President will have a serious reality to face. That reality is that Federal coffers are going to be tight to say the least, and as such, we need to take care of the underpinnings that will allow us to address additional concerns in the future while remaining competitive in a global marketplace.